Page 1 Page 2 Page 3 Page 4 Page 5 Page 6 Page 7 Page 8 Page 9 Page 10 Page 11 Page 12 Page 13 Page 14 Page 15 Page 16 Page 17 Page 18 Page 19 Page 2011. McDermid,J.,S.Fera and A.Hogg.2015.Climate change projections for Ontario: An updated synthesis for policymakers and planners.Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry,Science and Research Branch,Peterborough,Ontario,Climate Change Research Report CCRR-44. 09 " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " Lake Superior Lake Huron Lake Michigan Lake Ontario Lake Erie NewYork Toronto Chicago Thunder Bay Gatineau Greater Sudbury/Grand Sudbury Kingston Barrie Oshawa St Paul Hamilton Buffalo London Grand Rapids Lansing Detroit Windsor Madison Pittsburgh Des Moines Peoria Ottawa Timmins Kenora North Bay Pembroke Cornwall Sault Ste Marie Peterborough Owen Sound Albany Niagara Falls Sarnia Mansfield Fort Severn Shamattawa Peawanuck Oxford House Kitchenuhmaykoosib Inninuwug Attawapiskat Fort Albany Webequie Sandy Lake Moosonee Little Grand Rapids Eabametoong Pikangikum RedLake Hearst Armstrong Kapuskasing La Sarre Cochrane Geraldton Sioux Lookout Dryden Kirkland Lake Marathon Mont-Laurier Ville-Marie Atikokan Wawa Chapleau Rainy River Fort Frances Blind River Grand Rapids Little Current Parry Sound Goderich © Queen's Printer for Ontario2015 Published: 2015-01-30 Datum: North American 1983 Climate projections represent a composite (average) of four statistically downscaledGlobal Climate/Earth Systems Models: CanESM2, MIROC-ESM- CHEM, CESM1-CAM5, HadGEM2-ES. Smaller lakes are illustrative and not necessarily considered during climate modelling. Climate data provided by: Dan McKenney, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forestry Service, Sault Ste. Marie. This map is a product of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources & Forestry. 100 0 100 200 km ± " Settlements Provincial / State Boundary International Boundary Temperature Change (°C) 2.5 to 3.0 3.0 to 3.5 3.5 to 4.0 4.0 to 4.5 4.5 to 5.0 5.0 to 5.5 5.5 to 6.0 6.0 to 6.5 6.5 to 7.0 Data source: norm71_2050rcp85_bio_01 Mean Annual Temperature Change 2041 - 2070 projection (RCP8.5) departures from 1971 - 2000 normal Mean Winter Temperature Change 2041 - 2070 projection (RCP8.5) departures from 1971 - 2000 normal " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " " Lake Superior Lake Huron Lake Michigan Lake Ontario Lake Erie NewYork Toronto Chicago Thunder Bay Gatineau Greater Sudbury/Grand Sudbury Kingston Barrie Oshawa St Paul Hamilton Buffalo London Grand Rapids Lansing Detroit Windsor Madison Pittsburgh Des Moines Peoria Ottawa Timmins Kenora North Bay Pembroke Cornwall Sault Ste Marie Peterborough Owen Sound Albany Niagara Falls Sarnia Mansfield Fort Severn Shamattawa Peawanuck Oxford House Kitchenuhmaykoosib Inninuwug Attawapiskat Fort Albany Webequie Sandy Lake Moosonee Little Grand Rapids Eabametoong Pikangikum RedLake Hearst Armstrong Kapuskasing La Sarre Cochrane Geraldton Sioux Lookout Dryden Kirkland Lake Marathon Mont-Laurier Ville-Marie Atikokan Wawa Chapleau Rainy River Fort Frances Blind River Grand Rapids Little Current Parry Sound Goderich " Settlements Provincial / State Boundary International Boundary Temperature Change (°C) 2.5 to 3.0 3.0 to 3.5 3.5 to 4.0 4.0 to 4.5 4.5 to 5.0 5.0 to 5.5 5.5 to 6.0 6.0 to 6.5 6.5 to 7.0 7.0 to 7.5 7.5 to 8.0 8.0 to 8.5 8.5 to 9.0 9.0 to 9.5 9.5 to 10.0 > 10.0 Data source: norm71_2050rcp85_bio_11 © Queen's Printer for Ontario2015 Published: 2015-01-30 Datum: North American 1983 Climate projections represent a composite (average) of four statistically downscaledGlobal Climate/Earth Systems Models: CanESM2, MIROC-ESM- CHEM, CESM1-CAM5, HadGEM2-ES. Smaller lakes are illustrative and not necessarily considered during climate modelling. Climate data provided by: Dan McKenney, Natural Resources Canada, Canadian Forestry Service, Sault Ste. Marie. This map is a product of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources & Forestry. 100 0 100 200 km ± Researchers with the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources and Forestry have modeled the projected changes in climate in Ontario.11 An ensemble of several downscaled Global Climate Models are used to look at possible future climate. Scenarios describing possible future climate are based on assumptions of how the earth’s climate operates, future world population levels, economic activity and greenhouse gas emissions. The maps shown below illustrate the average annual temperature difference comparing a base historical period (1971-2000) to a future period in the 2050’s and 2080’s using a business-as-usual emissions scenario (RCP 8.5).11 For more projections see: www.climateontario.ca/MNR_Publications/CCRR-44.pdf (download 40 pages)