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FEDERATION OF ONTARIO COTTAGERS ASSOCIATIONS 11 and as late as 32 days after being bitten however not everyone gets symptoms. The most common symptom is a red expanding rash known as Erythema migrans EM or bulls-eye rash that fades in three to four weeks. The diagnosis is often a clinical one without the use of tests as blood tests looking for the antibody against Lyme Disease take weeks to become positive. Once infected antibodies can circulate for years. Early treatment with antibiotics will not only prevent the long term consequences but may also stop antibodies from forming in some people who will then test negative. Controversies exist about both testing and treatment and it is buyer beware when it comes to using private labs in the U.S. who profit by marketing their tests. Some of these tests have not been validated and are difficult to interpret. Ontario uses state-of-the-art two-tiered testing in its Public Health Lab. By the time that late stage disease develops virtually everyone will test positive. Negative serological tests in patients with prolonged non-specific symptoms can virtually rule out the disease and physicians should look for other causes. In response to external claims in March 2012 Public Health Ontario evaluated the existing science and could not find any sound evidence of a post-Lyme Disease illness that warrants prolonged IV antibiotics. There are certainly compelling anecdotal stories and case reports appearing in local media that can cause concern hopefully there will be well-designed clinical trials to help sort out the most salient facts soon. In the meantime the ticks are really telling us that the clock is ticking on climate change and we better take this threat seriously. The average annual amount of precipitation may not change dramatically however the distribution will change likely more in the winter and less in the summer. The overall effect will be to reduce surface and groundwater levels. The frequency of intense rainfalls will increase which will increase flooding events. There will be declines in the duration of winter ice. This may reduce the likelihood for winter fish kills in shallow lakes. The distribution of many fish and other species will change - cold-water species will likely decline in the south and warm-water species will expand northward. Fish growth rate should increase but not at the same rate for each species. The food chain will likely be altered. So what will a changing climate mean for Ontario Lakes and cottage country in particular Extreme heat will be more common. Warmer lakes will likely result in reduced fish habitat for existing species. These impacts will be especially severe in shallow lakes. The duration of summer water stratification will increase adding to the risk of oxygen depletion. Lower water levels and warmer temperatures may accelerate the accumulation of mercury and other contaminants in the food chain and ultimately fish. These conditions could also lead to an increase in nuisance algae. Invasions of new non-native species will be more likely. Aquatic ecosystems are very vulnerable to climate change. Even small changes can cause big impacts. Some likely developments for Ontario include Specific ecological responses to climate change cannot be exactly predicted because changed conditions with new combinations of native and non-native species will interact in unpredictable ways. How we adapt to changing climatic conditions will greatly influence the future state of Ontarios lakes and rivers. by FOCA with notes from the North American Lake Management Society nalms.org